Day 242 - 29 Apr 96 - Page 14
1
2 Q. Right. The very last thing from this Cesca document
3 I wanted to refer to is he refers to a chart at the very
4 bottom of his page. Do not worry about that, I do not know
5 if you have that not front of you, but it says:
6
7 "Specifically the forest is transformed to pasture (see the
8 figure IV16) for the national land use for the years 1950
9 to 1990."
10
11 That chart is on page 65 of the documents that I disclosed
12 this morning.
13 A. Yes.
14
15 Q. Page 65 of that is stapled together. There is a chart
16 which is entitled "National land use for the years 1950 to
17 1990" as referred to in the Cesca document and it has
18 percentage of national land in use from 0 to 100 per cent
19 in the left-hand side and then the years, the decades, at
20 the bottom.
21
22 Would you like to make any comment on that? Would that
23 accord with your understanding and can you explain it?
24 A. Yes, it would entirely. One of the things that the
25 chart shows, if you take the line describing all land and
26 forests which starts in the upper west quadrant, all land
27 and forest, you see it going down from 1950 all the way to
28 1990.
29
30 Q. From about 73 per cent down to about 30 per cent?
31 A. That is correct, and if you look at the line labelled
32 "farmland in pastures", which starts between the 10 and
33 the 20, on the left-hand side of the graph.
34
35 Q. About 13 per cent?
36 A. That is correct, so you see they converge and that
37 there is a point in about 1982/1983 which is confirmed by
38 the literature in the field at which the farmland in
39 pasture surpasses farmland and forest and that is not
40 entirely coincidental. There is a causal relationship.
41 There is a substitution effect and that is quite clear from
42 the literature.
43
44 Q. By 1990 -- well, I think it is probably projected, because
45 this document was actually produced in 1982, but it seems
46 to be something towards about 50 per cent of all land in
47 pasture?
48 A. Those are undoubtedly projections because the last
49 agricultural census is not out yet.
50
51 Q. Right. The pastureland on that map, when it starts in 1950
52 the 13 per cent of the land in pasture out of about 36 per
53 cent, something just under a third of all farmland ----
54
55 MR. JUSTICE BELL: Was the last census in about 1975 because
56 that is where solid lines turn into dash lines and little
57 circles close together turn into little circles further
58 apart?
59 A. The last census was published in 1975. I believe the
60 work was done in the late 1960s but there is a gap of quite
