Day 106 - 23 Mar 95 - Page 09
1 say more than that?
2 A. My Lord, that is undoubtedly true. It is undoubtedly
3 the case that the larger number of salmonellosis cases are
4 unreported. That is unquestionable.
5
6 Q. Can you say more than make a broad statement like that?
7 Can you be more precise than that?
8 A. It could be one in five, it could be one in 10, there
9 was a MAFF Department of Health report which suggested one
10 in seven. One in 10, as we know, is the current figure.
11 That is the figure adopted by the Chief Medical Officer for
12 convenience. Professor Lacey preferred one in 100. It
13 possibly varies year on year.
14
15 For instance, in 1988 when salmonella was in the headlines
16 more people might have been reporting it in which the case
17 of rate of under-reporting would have been less; other
18 years when it is not in headlines, and people forget about
19 it -- diseases have their fashions after all -- it would
20 vary.
21
22 MR. JUSTICE BELL: Yes, thank you.
23
24 MR. MORRIS: It may be helpful, if you are unsure of an accurate
25 figure for a particular matter, if you can give what the
26 generally accepted figure is.
27 A. Well, for want of a better ratio, if you like, the
28 preferred ratio is one in 10. That is the one which the
29 Chief Medical Officer prefers to adopt.
30
31 Q. We will hear in a minute about chicken products, but you
32 said something about pork products, the salmonella burden
33 for pork products is likely to be something between 15 and
34 25?
35 A. It can be, yes, in terms of sausages.
36
37 Q. Have you any reason to believe that the pork products
38 processed at McKey's would be any different?
39 A. With the qualifier that I have not seen pork process
40 there, in that it is obviously a factory process, and there
41 was a distinction in the surveys I have seen is that, say,
42 home-made, i.e. local butcher shop made sausages tended
43 towards the lower range, factory-made sausages tended
44 towards the higher range of contamination, one would be
45 fairly happy with the supposition that a McKey type sausage
46 would be in the higher range.
47
48 Q. Is there any estimate of the salmonella burden in beef
49 burgers in the UK?
50 A. Not that I know of.
51
52 Q. Do you have any professional opinion on that?
53 A. There have been no systematic statistically structured
54 surveys. It is likely to be very, very, very variable.
55 You could find in some herds, very individual herds, high
56 incidence, others not. Overall, I should imagine it is
57 fairly low.
58
59 Q. About what?
60 A. Almost certainly less than 1 per cent and maybe
