Day 106 - 23 Mar 95 - Page 05

     
     1   Q.   They are all correct, are they?
     2        A.  Within the limits.
     3
     4   MR. JUSTICE BELL:  I think you are being asked if 4, 5 and 6 are
     5        accurate.
     6        A.  Within the limit of accuracy of data, yes.
     7
     8   Q.   Do you still adhere to what you set out there?
     9        A.  Yes, in principle, sir, yes.
    10
    11   MR. MORRIS:  How many confirmed salmonella cases are there a
    12        year, approximately?
    13        A.  The latest figures of provisional figures have just
    14        been released which are typical of the last few years and
    15        they stand at about 30-and-a-half thousand.
    16
    17   Q.   What would be the fact of under-reporting, do you think?
    18        A.  In truth, we do not know.  We have no idea.  There is a
    19        study being conducted at the moment which is aimed at
    20        trying to give some idea.  Different authorities use
         different figures depending on largely personal preference,
    22        but the figures which have some public dominance are one in
    23        10, in other words, nine out of 10 cases are not reported.
    24        Other authorities, if you can call them, like to use a
    25        higher figure of saying one in 100 i.e. 99 out of 100 are
    26        not reported.
    27
    28   Q.   So that is somewhere between a factor of 10 and 100 are
    29        reported?
    30        A.  Somewhere which, of course, would make the true figure
    31        between 300,000 and 3,000,000.
    32
    33   Q.   Just to clarify a couple of other -----
    34
    35   MR. JUSTICE BELL:  So you are saying there might be as many as
    36        three-and-a-half million cases a year?
    37        A.  That is quite possible, my Lord.
    38
    39   MR. MORRIS:  Just moving on to campylobacter and E.coli:  For
    40        campylobacter, are there reporting figures as accurate as
         that for salmonella, for incidence?
    42        A.  Laboratory confirmed cases are an accurate record of
    43        laboratory confirmation.  In that sense, they are as
    44        accurate.  Whether or not the same level of under-reporting
    45        can be applied, I would suspect not.
    46
    47   Q.   Do you know what the figures are for campylobacter?
    48        A.  They are roughly about 40,000.  They are slightly more
    49        generally than salmonellosis.
    50 
    51   Q.   With campylobacter, is there a minimum loading for 
    52        poisoning to take place? 
    53        A.  Yes.  I need to qualify that.  Strictly speaking,
    54        campylobacter is not food poisoning per se.  It is a
    55        food-borne disease.  There is a technical distinction which
    56        can be quite relevant.
    57
    58   MR. JUSTICE BELL:  Perhaps you had better help me on that.
    59        A.  My Lord, it is a very contentious area.  Believe it or
    60        not, there have been several committees sitting just to