: I think we've all been quite explicit that the relationship between crime and economics is a complex one, and therefore, Don, you can stop telling us that there is no "simple" relationship.DonS: Fine, except when someone says that world socialism will end (or significantly reduce) crime. Claiming that suggests a simple relationship.
: : : Don: People were poorer and more desperate in the '30s and in the early 1900s. Yet crime was higher in the '20s. There was greater economic inequality in the early 1900s than in the '20s. Yet crime was higher in the '20s. There was greater urbanization in the '30s, yet crime was higher in the '20s.
: : Erm, no, the chart shows the murder peak at '35, so the highest crime rate is in the thirties. The twenties saw aweful poverty as well, and increasing displacement of people (displacement can be a causative factor, note the mini-spike after '45 with all them thar demobbed soldiers coming back). I'll go look for some text-books....
: In addition, the passage of the Volstead Act (instituted 16 January, 1920) criminalized a behavior that had previously been legal (alcohol). Any new prohibition is going to artificially inflate crime statistics anyway. In addition, criminalizing alcohol production resulted in a new "niche" for criminals. Many entered the illegal distilling profession, but were quickly "swallowed up" by larger, often "organized" crime syndicates. The rapid boom in number of criminals would tend to flatten out as the less successful competitors are removed or subsumed. Again, this is a complicated and indirect correlation between the large-scale trends and the actions of individuals, but a connection nevertheless.
DonS: The stats I have been working with were for homicide. Prohabition increased the homicide rate (as did the "drug war").
: However, looking at a single crime is not necessarily going to give us the kind of information we need. Murder, for example, is a very different type of crime than burgling, which is itself different from armed robbery even though these last two are both property crimes. It seems to me that diferent types of crimes are likely to have different motivations, and economic, social, and other factors are going to influence them in different ways.
DonS: I agree.
:A "total crimes reported" index would probably be much more useful in investigating these issues than an index of a single type of crime which may not be a valid indicator of criminality in general. (i.e. hypothetically, if murder goes way up, but all other types of crime cease entirely, do we have more crime or less, overall?) Maybe I can find some of those statistics. I'll get back to you on that.
DonS: As you point out, a single index will have its problems. It will always be worthwhile to look at crimes like murder, rape, assault, and armed robbery, etc., separatly.
None.
